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Obama's Delusion Continues

Some time back, I promised that a Republican would win the White House in 2008. Good job I didn't promise a Conservative, but then again, the closest thing the GOP has put up to copy Reagan was George W. Bush. No, I am not saying W is a pure Reaganite, but look at our nominees and major candidates since Ronnie left office, and you will see what I mean. It's not as if the RNC has been looking hard for The Next Gipper. As a result, there has not really been an opportunity since 1984 for Americans to say whether they want another Reagan. Given that fact, winning three of the last five gives an indication of just poor the Democrats' selections have been. And that tradition of snatching defeat from the jaws of opportunity is one which Barack Obama seems determined to continue. This morning, CNN posted an article wherein Senator Obama boasted that he does not need either Ohio or Florida to win, trusting instead that he will claim victories in Virginia, Georgia, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Montana, Alaska, Iowa and North Dakota.

Obviously, if Obama can claim all those states and hold the 'blue' states from the 2004 election, he would be correct, but the problem is that this assumption by Obama displays some very foolish mistakes:

[] Michigan and Florida are bitter about the way their primary results were handled by the DNC and Obama's camp. Making a public statement that reinforces the idea that Florida does not matter, is an incredibly stupid blunder, especially given the historical importance of that state. Obama hastened to say he will work hard to win Florida, but the insult was already delivered, and made the headline.

[] In every election, there are states which appear to be in play, but which revert to historical norms in the actual election. This is a critical flaw in opinion polling, which sometimes represents false trends in elections. In 2004, for example, the Democrats wrongly believed they were stronger in Southern states than they actually were, and Republicans wrongly believed they were stronger along the Pacific coast than they were. Demographic analysis is a critical component in any allocation of resources, and several of the states targeted by Obama are extremely poor investments in allocation of resources.

[] In my analysis of the states' historical performance and likely returns this fall, one of the most important indicators is the behavior not only of the candidate, but his supporters. To that end, consider the comments made by Obama supporters in the CNN article I noted. Many of them seem unaware that George W. Bush is not running again, many seem to think that independents are already on board and do not need to be convinced, many resort to quick insults and personal hostility when challenged to defend their candidate's record and statements. Acting like a spoiled middle-schooler is not the best strategy to convince undecided voters, and since Obama has shown no effort to restrain his troops from personal attacks, he has tied his image to their invective.

Obama is in a strong strategic position, but he cannot afford to keep repeating these blunders of assumption and judgment.


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Comments (17)

I predicted a Democratic vi... (Below threshold)

I predicted a Democratic victory in a late December 2007 post. That is still my prediction, one held by other conservative bloggers like this one. All indicators are bad for the GOP in 2008.

DJ, go ahead and call me cheerful sort. ;) Jim Addison did the same after I said the GOP would lose the House and Senate in 2006.

Obama is toying with McCain... (Below threshold)
Adrian Browne:

Obama is toying with McCain the way a cat toys with a mouse before . . . the inevitable.

The only difficult part for Obama is to make it look like McCain had a fighting chance.

OK, so riddle me this - How... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

OK, so riddle me this - How does Obama claim the 'show me' voters? "I'm not Bush" is not going to do it in the General Election, and yet no one ever answers that question.

btw Bill, the '06 results a... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

btw Bill, the '06 results are important as well. Look at Reid and Pelosi's results since taking power. The Congress - White House balance of power is a historical fact, and so it works against Obama, not for him.

The left wing liberals buy ... (Below threshold)

The left wing liberals buy the word of Hussein O the hypocrite. It will be interesting to watch him tell the people of Iraq that he objected to their freedom and still does. Will he tell them 'my name is Hussein Obama' and I supported Hussein and his sons mass murder, rape rooms, and wood chippers and truthfully do not support you and your freedom today? Will Hussein O make a side trip to Iran and play Kissie face, smacky mouth with his real friends?

The President does not have... (Below threshold)
Piso Mojado:

The President does not have any power when compared to unelected men & women in black robes. Those people create new rights & laws with a stroke of the pen.

Look at Reid and P... (Below threshold)
Look at Reid and Pelosi's results since taking power. The Congress - White House balance of power is a historical fact, and so it works against Obama, not for him.

It's a fact the left likes to point to GWB's poor poll numbers to emphasize that Americans want different leadership.

But Bush polls badly because he isn't conservative enough, so conservatives give him negatives too. Hence the reason the Democratic led congress polls worse than the President. They are not lefty enough and the lefties themselves drive their poll numbers down because they didn't get their dream of immediate withdrawal from Iraq and impeachment hearings.

Now if only they can get a lefty President to work with a weak-kneed lefty congress, then of course utopia with spread across the universe.

So here we sit just hoping that if Obama wins and has a majority in both Houses of Congress, that American's will see extreme leftism taking hold, they'll ask themselves "what in the hell were we thinking?".

It happened between 1992 and 1994, it can happen again.

That's more than a little l... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

That's more than a little like pulling the pin on the grenade, holding it in your hand and hoping it will be a dud like last time.

That's more than a... (Below threshold)
That's more than a little like pulling the pin on the grenade, holding it in your hand and hoping it will be a dud like last time

I'm "hip and in-tune" to what you are saying. But if Obama does win and has a majority in Congress, then I have nothing left but that hope.

I'm not one of those people vowing not to vote for McCain because he isn't conservative enough. I'm voting for him because the other guy is way to left and I'd rather not take the chance during these times.

Way, way, way to early to m... (Below threshold)

Way, way, way to early to make any predictions in favor of Obama. His own mouth will keep getting him in trouble again and again. And the childish argument of "that's just the typical washington game," won't hold up anymore. Obama is going to have to demonstrate he knows his stuff, which he hasn't shown yet and I believe he cannot. ww

1 - mentioning Bush and Rea... (Below threshold)

1 - mentioning Bush and Reagan in the same sentence in any way other than "Bush is not even close to a Reagan" is a slander against Reagan. Yeah, I know you bow to no one in your adoration of Bush, but get a grip, DJ, that is just sad, sad, sad. And there's been plenty of opportunities (six, in fact) for the people to say whether they want another Reagan. Obviously, they haven't or we would have seen one on the ticket.

2 - You refer to 'Michigan' and 'Florida' as if they were some homogeneous entity, where everybody is of a like mind. Not everyone in those two states is bent out of shape over the democratic primary and, of those who are, it's as silly to think they're going to sit this out (or vote for McCain) as it is to think conservatives as a group are going to sit this fall rather than vote for McCain.

3 - states do revert to their historical norms... until they don't. Obama could very well be justified in thinking this is the year and the conditions which puts, leave, for example, Virginia in play.

4 - It's wishful thinking to think that Obama's supporters themselves are going to influence whether people vote for Obama. Most of the swing voters who are going to decide the election pay very little attention to politics, and certainly not to the point where they pick up on what a candidate's supporters are doing and saying.

Other than that, your analysis is spot on

All Obama has to do is prom... (Below threshold)

All Obama has to do is promise the moon to the so-called poor and they will come out in droves to vote for him, despite his foot in mouth disease that seems to afflict him every time he opens his mouth. Hell, the graveyards will probably come to life on the first Tuesday in November. I am waiting for the big one to drop when it is closer to the election. Could there be another Rev Jeremiah Wright or another Father Fleger waiting in the wings? One can only hope.

If there's one thing that s... (Below threshold)

If there's one thing that should make Democrats rejoice and Republicans despair, it's that DJ Drummond has predicted a Republican victory. Let's review how his predictions have worked out so far this election cycle:

Last year, when McCain was down, he jumped on the conventional wisdom bandwagon and predicted McCain would NEVER be the nominee:

But I will say plainly, that because they have chosen to personally savage the President, to abandon the GOP when their support would have made a difference, and to put their egos and image ahead of the nation's welfare, such candidates as John McCain, Tom Tancredo, and Sam Brownback will never gain the GOP nomination, and thank God for that.

On Jan 20th, even after McCain was showing considerable strength, he still claimed that McCain didn't have what it took:

McCain and Huckabee, well, to me they played off niche strengths but I just don't see them carrying the ball all the way to the goal line, not even the mid-field that is the party nomination.

Even into Feb, he still believed that the most likely outcome for the Republicans was a brokered convention.

It's fine for you to have an opinion that your boy McCain will claim 52% of the delegates. But again, the numbers point towards a brokered convention right now, so it's only reasonable to ask you to explain what you think will change the balance. Since McCain's poll numbers show he has not cleared 40% support, let alone 50%, and since so many of the primaries are NOT winner-take-all, and since the demographics show places where one particular significant GOP candidate is strong, claiming that McCain is going to break out and run away with the nomination is a bold claim which is not supported by the existing numbers.

Not to mention one last prediction squeezed in at the last minute prediction:

as big as Super Tuesdsay is, the three main GOP candidates will all still be in the hunt after February 5.

So, let's just say that DJ's "analysis" has historically proved to be wanting. If DJ wants to call someone delusional, he should direct his voice to the closest reflective surface.

The closest thing to Reagan... (Below threshold)
Micheal Price:

The closest thing to Reagan the GOP has is The Shrub? Then why the hell are conservatives still supporting them? In fact that's a lie and you know it. Ron Paul is closer to Reagan than Bush ever was. Remember Reagan (for all the cracks about his stupidity) was smart enough to get the hell out of the middle east.

In the polls obama is also ... (Below threshold)
maz hess:

In the polls obama is also close to win arizona, north carolina, mississippi etc. Not only to oversee that two third of the states in this election will end blue but still to promise that a republican will win the white house shows the greates blunder of assumption and judgment.

Maz,Great blunders o... (Below threshold)

Great blunders of assumption and judgement are DJ's bread and butter. I think I documented that quite amply above.

Holy crap, Joe Yangtree, th... (Below threshold)

Holy crap, Joe Yangtree, that's pretty well-documented. I bet DJ has a really awesome rebuttal in store for you.

Tick... tick... tick...






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