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Obama's Lead has Disappeared

I didn't get my Rasmussen email this morning so I clicked over to his site and found this little nugget of information that made my Sunday morning that much brighter: Obama/Biden and McCain/Palin are tied.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday, September 7, shows the race for the White House is tied.

In the first national polling results based entirely on interviews conducted after Sarah Palin's acceptance speech, Barack Obama gets 46% of the vote and so does John McCain. When "leaners" are included, it's all even at 48%.

All three days of this tracking poll took place after Sarah Palin's speech and two days were after McCain's speech. As you may remember, Obama's bounce peaked on the Tuesday after the close of the Democratic convention, so we can make the assumption that McCain's numbers will peak at around the same time. Also, Rasmussen makes this point:

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, tomorrow (Monday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain's speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the net impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.

McCain, the old coot, is now viewed more favorably than Obama:

Overall, McCain is now viewed favorably by 58% of the nation's voters while Obama earns positive reviews from 56% (see trends).

Palin is viewed favorably by 58% of voters including 40% with a Very Favorable opinion of her. Biden earns positive reviews from 48% of voters.

The media likes to portray the Republicans as the party of old meanies. Isn't this an interesting turn of events.


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Comments (25)

With luck, Obama winning... (Below threshold)

With luck, Obama winning the election will also be found to be above his pay grade.

Obama is up by 1.8 actually... (Below threshold)
Obama 46.4 McCain 44.6:
Obama's up by 1.8 in the RC... (Below threshold)

Obama's up by 1.8 in the RCP average because it includes the Hotline/Diageo poll, which was conducted between September 2-4, so it's not accurate for how people feel now.

Obama is up by 1.8 actually... (Below threshold)

Obama is up by 1.8 actually.

Correction: Obama WAS up. If you look at the individual polls at the link you posted Obama is only up on the ones that include data before Palin & McCain spoke thus proving Kim's point.

I caught about 15 min of Ha... (Below threshold)

I caught about 15 min of Hannity driving home last week because he had Rasmussen and Zogby on the phone. They were both saying that the bounces would probably even out a week after the conventions and that it would be statistical dead heat maybe through November. So, they're right there so far. I guess we'll see how the debates go.

Poor Barry, it's been a bad... (Below threshold)

Poor Barry, it's been a bad week. His campaign decided to ignore Governor Palin after their first attempts at attacking her and to just let their pals in the MSM 'vet' her. That has now backfired and the score is tied. Anyone heard from Joe Biden lately? Is he still running?

Yeah, what she said.... (Below threshold)

Yeah, what she said.

The McCain/Palin ticket win... (Below threshold)

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure. Zogby Poll:

Obami should have pick Bill... (Below threshold)

Obami should have pick Billary...but he was too afraid....poor wittle man...boo hoo. SARRACUDA!!!

The media likes to port... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

The media likes to portray the Republicans as the party of old meanies.

And one now led by an especially old meany. Where would they get such an idea?

It is not only the media, but Republicans themselves who see their leader that way. In January, Sen. Thad Cochran, R-Miss., told The Boston Globe that, "the thought of (McCain) being president sends a cold chill down my spine. He is erratic. He is hotheaded. He loses his temper and he worries me."

"It seems the only way to deal with John McCain is to think the way he does," said Hinz, the former Arizona GOP official who now runs an insurance reform advocacy group in Phoenix. "If he gets more power, what's going to make him suddenly become a fuzzy, nice guy?"

On the other hand, George Will a conservative columnist, echos that Obama "seems to have little talent for anger."

The debates should bring out quite starkly the candidates' temperments, and who has the better mind suited to be a president in 2009, the old coot, as Kim calls him, or someone who has a strong intellect, despite the enormous disadvantage of not being a war hero or war survivor over three decades ago?

I think the opinion polls will reflect that..If they don`t Obama is in real trouble, if he can`t defeat McCain in the televised debates.

I saw pictures of the McCai... (Below threshold)

I saw pictures of the McCain/Palin event in Cedarburg WI... If they can generated that much enthusiasm in a place like Wisconsin, in the Obamamessiah's backyard, he is toast. No wonder he is trimming back his 50 state strategy (or is it 57?) to the 'safe' states.

Uh Oh. If Barry O is start... (Below threshold)

Uh Oh. If Barry O is starting to go defensive, that's bad for him. I don't know of many people or teams who ended up winning by playing it "safe" when it's either really close or you're slightly behind.

Then again, we see how well going on the attack worked last week. ;)

McCain, the old coot, is... (Below threshold)

McCain, the old coot, is now viewed more favorably than Obama:

Really? You think a 2 point discrepancy allows you to draw a conclusion like that? They didn't survey 10,000 people. The margin of error is greater than 2%, Kim.

One most surprising satatis... (Below threshold)
Moonbat Detective:

One most surprising satatistic is 89% of republicans support their candidate while only 81% of the dems support Obamamama. This is mostly due to Saracuda's nomination I would wager since the republican and conservative base was wish-washy with a McCain presidency. If this does not solidfy McCain's superior intellect and political saavy (along with the Georgia-Russian conflict) nothing will. It just shows that the dems are clearly just show and McCain/Palin is just substance. As my gofling father would say, "You drive for show and putt for dough." McCain is a fantastic putter!!!!!

Actually, if you at the RCP... (Below threshold)

Actually, if you at the RCP average now, it is Obama up by .8

A week ago he was up by EIGHT

Over a 7 point swing in one week...and, as pointed out above, the .8 average includes a VERY out-lying, FIRST-TIME, poll from New York.

Stir in the FACT that Dems ALWAYS over-poll....hmmm....

Obama questioned McCain's j... (Below threshold)
Mac Lorry:

Obama questioned McCain's judgement in picking Palin. With these latest pole numbers it's clear McCain's judgement is great, which raises the question about Obama's judgement for not seeing what a great move McCain made. Now Obama is having to supplement his poor pick of VP by sending out Hillary to do job.

It's apparent the Obama doesn't have the judgement needed to be President. We are living in dangerous times and it ludicrous to elect Obama with his poor judgment and so little experience to be President.

Biden will have to sit out ... (Below threshold)
retired military:

Biden will have to sit out the election soon if the polls continue to go bad. Expect a reocrruence of his brain aneursym (spelling).

Hillary will get picked as VP then.

Obama sees his vision hopes and dreams being accepted by the American people "change" on a daily basis and it isnt going in the right way.

The only poll that counts is on election day. Any other poll give the republicans 5% to make up for the bias questions, overpolling of democrats and the positive republican responses that get thrown out. No I dont trust pollsters.

crickmore - "It is not ... (Below threshold)

crickmore - "It is not only the media, but Republicans themselves who see their leader that way."

And Slick Willy Clinton wasn't angry while wagging his finger ("I did not....") at the entire nation?

Geesh crickmore, you grasped at that straw and even that slipped out of your hand.

Marc:McCain has be... (Below threshold)


McCain has been known to shake a finger or two at the White House while saying "It is all just the fu. . . spin." And he was right. Obama has his own anger issues. Both of them have strong egos, strong opinions and don't suffer fools gladly unless a very large check is in the offering. Republicans DO see McCain as an angry old man. Given how Congressional Republicans started screwing up once Newt was out and the likes of Tom DeLay, the pit bull idiot from Sugarland took over, he has every right to be angry.

*I* am an angry old man and a Republican to boot, with credentials going all the way back to John Tower's original campaign. And *I* am angry at what the Tom DeLays of the world have done to the Republican party and America. Don't get me started.

Sure marc I know Bill Clin... (Below threshold)
Steve Crickmore:

Sure marc I know Bill Clinton has a bad temper...kept in check in private, until this year...Obama is very even tempered. That is one of the reasons that make him special. McCain`s is a liability, I.m afraid..I have no idea of Palin..A veep is still probably one of the least important choices a president will have to make..but hey if that is what the Public thinks is important,(it certainly wasn't McCain`s speech) why all this emphasis on experience..Why were all the the GOP canadidates of the same ilk? There are many contradictions in this election. As I have said before, the crucial benchmark should be based not on experience but on ability, and we will see whether Palin has it, an important if? or McCain still has it? I`m confident Obama does.

Steve sounds worried.... (Below threshold)

Steve sounds worried.

I sincerely hope the libs k... (Below threshold)

I sincerely hope the libs keep going after Palin. They did what was going to be very hard for McCain to do; get the attention of concervatives and independents. Thanks Obama. ww

Obama "seems to have lit... (Below threshold)

Obama "seems to have little talent for anger."

No, he just stutters and looks for the results of the last focus group, opinion polls or maybe even Michelle's thoughts and waits for his advisers to interject something into his teleprompter.


One question: Has Obama EVER had to make a split second decision? Does Obama have any record whatsoever of having to decide something, anything, that may be even slightly construed as an emergency?

I've boiled it down lately to the 3am phone call. Obama will call thirty different people in return looking for his opinion. McCain will actually make a decision.

Hyper: If I remember correctly, not all too long ago, you were defending polls, the way they gathered information and all sorts of sexy little tidbits of valuable information. It couldn't have become 'inconvenient' for you lately - could it? I also seem to remember that you're from Canada too. Am I right? Don't you have more pressing Canadian issues to pay attention to?

"*I* am an angry old man and a Republican to boot, with credentials going all the way back to John Tower's original campaign. And *I* am angry at what the Tom DeLays of the world have done to the Republican party and America. Don't get me started."

Hear hear, Larry.

"I sincerely hope the li... (Below threshold)

"I sincerely hope the libs keep going after Palin. They did what was going to be very hard for McCain to do; get the attention of conservatives and independents."

They were hoping to get votes - but what people will see is NOT what the libs were wanting them to, WW - they're seeing the unmasking of an intolerant and hateful bunch, and it's damaging party credibility badly. Obama actually had a clue when he urged his supporters to NOT go after Palin's children, but they were already in motion by that point so it was too late.

And now - they couldn't be hurting the Dems any more if they wanted to.

Oh hi Oyster, I had things ... (Below threshold)

Oh hi Oyster, I had things to do this weekend other than reply to your comment. If you read it, though:

I always take polls very seriously, but that requires a more than cursory understanding of variables including sampling methodology, base size, etc. The particular figures Kim cited as demonstrating an advantage for McCain were meaningless as the margin of error exceeded the difference. Got that? Christ, you didn't even read what I said, or chose not to understand how it related to what Kim said in the first place.

Your link doesn't work. What's it about?






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