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Zogby: McCain Takes Lead in One Day Polling

According to Zogby, the polling from today had McCain up 48-47. And today is Halloween, a day that tends to lean Democrat. Zogby's tracking poll is the average of three days, so we can expect a bump in McCain's numbers tomorrow. Here are the details via Drudge:

ZOGBY SATURDAY: McCain outpolled Obama 48% to 47% in Friday, one day, polling. He is beginning to cut into Obama's lead among independents, is now leading among blue collar voters, has strengthened his lead among investors and among men, and is walloping Obama among NASCAR voters. Joe the Plumber may get his license after all...


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Comments (30)

Sweet Jesus. Take us Home!... (Below threshold)

Sweet Jesus. Take us Home!!

You missed what I been sayi... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

You missed what I been sayin'?

A pretty poll with no internals is still just a poll with no internals.

Vote and get your friends, family and neighbors to vote!

It is kind of silly to repo... (Below threshold)

It is kind of silly to report on subgroups within one poll as significant or indicative of an emerging trend. The sample of many subgroups is simply too small to make much of a predictive statement.

Listen,I posted he... (Below threshold)
Eneils Bailey:


I posted here earlier tonight that McCain is going to win this thing.

While we have over-abundance of socialist fools in this country, we still have enough responsible, grown-up citizens to keep a Marxist, Leninist, Globalist, Socialist Dear Leader fool out of the White House.

If Mac makes it, will it be... (Below threshold)
Captain America:

If Mac makes it, will it be the biggest comeback ever?

I'm with DJ here folks.... (Below threshold)

I'm with DJ here folks.

These polling groups have no idea what they are doing this year. Don't hang your hat on this Zogby poll, he's probably one of the more inaccurate pollsters in the business.

Do go out and vote though! I've already voted but my wife hasn't yet. She will come Tuesday. You should too!

You sound nervous, ORyan ..... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

You sound nervous, ORyan ...


Like I said, I've been calling the race this close for a long time now, seems like some folks are just now catching up.

Heads exploding at Obama-Bi... (Below threshold)
Captain America:

Heads exploding at Obama-Biden (D-ACORN)...

Kim,I checked Zogb... (Below threshold)


I checked Zogby's Website and your/drudges claim appear to be outright false.

Just yesterday John Zogby himself says,

"With less than a week to go, today's numbers are not a good development for McCain. There is no momentum for him, and the clock is starting to run short. Worse news for McCain today is that Obama hit 50% in the single day of polling, while he dropped back to the low 40s. Obama increased his lead among independents compared to yesterday, has moved into a lead among men, and still holds about one in five conservatives. But six days, including Election Day, is an eternity and McCain cannot be counted out yet, though he may need a wing and a prayer."

And today he says it has not changed.

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Oct. 3... (Below threshold)

Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby Oct. 31 Poll:
Obama 50.1%, McCain 43.1%

No, Cap'n, it would not be ... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

No, Cap'n, it would not be the biggest. In my book, the biggest comebacks are:

3. Bush I comes from behind after the conventions to blow Dukakis into itty bitty pieces (McCain would have to top 53% of the PV to beat that)

2. Ford comes from 33 down after the conventions to lose by just 2

1. Truman '48. All that needs to be said.

Still, it would be real fun to see, and a great relief for us bitter old, Constitution-does-not-need-to-be-'fixed' folks.

The trend is what has shift... (Below threshold)
le combat:

The trend is what has shifted in McCain's favor.

The trend is what has sh... (Below threshold)

The trend is what has shifted in McCain's favor.

What factual evidence do you base this on? Please provide links.

le combat,When I l... (Below threshold)

le combat,

When I look for trends I look at graphs such as the this one.

actually one of the reasons... (Below threshold)

actually one of the reasons all the polls are tightening is that we are getting down to the end and now every polls reputation is actually on the line... the money for next year comes from being close to accurate this year.

so no more fantasy-driven double digit leads for obama.

(some people have readin... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

(some people have reading comprehension issues) Read Drudge again Cockroach. The 48-47 is friday's one-day polling number to be released in the next Zogby report. Druge got an early sniff, that happens with journalists, especially since Zogby's probably looking to play the contrarian spin again, he's done that before you know.

Now.....would someone pleas... (Below threshold)

Now.....would someone please..please tell me who it was and where it was that I found detailed anaylsis on what the "commercial" polls do. And how those polls were weighted wrong?!!?!?!?

Sounds like to me someone may have re-validated their internal model because this just doesn't happen because of "statistical noise"

Wonder if he took a look at early voting and absentee numbers to validate his internal weighting model?

It's quite funny, conservat... (Below threshold)

It's quite funny, conservatives, how you happily leave Realityland to cling to the tiniest shred of hope that you can escape Judgment Day. But the happiness is fleeting; Judgment Day will soon be here, coming at you like a hard slap in the face. But hey, you do love pain and torture, don't you?

Hey Herman:... (Below threshold)

Hey Herman:

Thanks for posting. Yea, we are surely coming up on Judgement Day. Yup, the day us conservatives get it where we deserve it, right?

Uh, (to quote Obama), you don't know conservatives very well, now do you?

See, it has been several decades since a real conservative was elected President. Why, we have to go all the way back to 1984 since the last time. Bush 41 and Bush 42 may be Republicans, but they are NOT conservatives, any more than Clinton was a Liberal, which he wasn't and isn't.

Now leave us take a look at something that the Obama camp put out just today:

Barack Obama's senior advisers have drawn up plans to lower expectations for his presidency if he wins next week's election, amid concerns that many of his euphoric supporters are harboring unrealistic hopes of what he can achieve.

This, of course, refers to Page 11 of Obama's book, Audacity, which I doubt you have read.

I should clarify that if Obama wins, I won't cry. The Republican Party needs to get back to its roots and that would do it. What you don't realize Herman is that socialism is a dead horse. Every society that tries to ride it fails.

I do prefer a McCain victory to save us some pain. I believe that Palin is strong enough to keep the conservative movement alive and well within a McCain administration. I also believe that if McCain wins, there will be riots in the street, but there won't be if Obama wins.

The reason for that is the unreasonable expectations that Obama has raised among many people who projected their needs against his rhetoric; Peggy Joseph comes to mind if we are to believe the video.

I guess I'm just thinking b... (Below threshold)

I guess I'm just thinking back to 2004 cycle when Zogby had it really wrong. I'm not really sure what this race is. The closer it gets the less convinced I am that pollsters really know how to model it. For example, in NC voting is already at 180% of the total 2004 turnout. Though I do not really see much evidence in favor of McCain I do see a lot of uncertainty.

Try to remember that we're ... (Below threshold)

Try to remember that we're conservatives.

Yesterday, for good and valid reasons, we argued that the polls were not to be believed.

Those good and valid reasons are just as good and valid today, when the polls say what we want to hear, as they were yesterday, when they said what we didn't.

McCain may well win -- I think and hope he will. But we shouldn't be putting our faith in Zogby's poll today, when yesterday we knew a dozen reasons to laugh at it.

Leave that kind of shallow reasoning to the liberals.

Hey Herman, No sup... (Below threshold)

Hey Herman,

No supermajority in the Senate for Dems, regardless of if Obama wins or not. And we will make sure our side fillibusters EVERY socilized medicine vote, EVERY partial-birth abortion vote, ANY union card check vote, and ANY judges that are as far left as Ginsburg.

You will get SOME of your liberal agenda through, as if Obama wins, he has basic control of the military and will surrender in Iraq. But he will be FORCED to negotiate with Republicans in the Senate, and guess what --- even Olympia Snow and Susan Collins are in no mood to negotiate with socialists.......

..all this assuming Obama holds on and wins -- which is in doubt at this point.

As far as your judgement day b.s --- just wait until you face back to back judgement days in 2010 (when the GOP destroys democrats in congressional race after race) and when they do it again, along with sending McCain/Palin or Palin/Jindal to the white house with a Republican supermajority, backed by masses of people who smelled failed socialistic Obamessiah policies and didn't like it.

Over the next 10-15 years, you will see Hispanics and African American abandon the RADICAL LEFT ideas of government recognized gay marriage, partial birth abortion, and anti-voucher policies......what will the left have to resort too when their 2 most reliable groups begin to bolt in modest numbers to the GOP?

And one more thing --- Prop 8 will pass in California with the MAJORITY of the black vote -- keep that in mind libs. Your most reliable voting group has some right wing positions that one day will lead them to leaving you!

Hey Obama Mamas, you loved ... (Below threshold)

Hey Obama Mamas, you loved him when your dude was up, you don't like him much now. Can you say hype=o-crats = dem=o-crats?

Herman and ryan (not the on... (Below threshold)

Herman and ryan (not the one in this post) are gleefully dreaming of leftist-thug majorities silencing conservative thought and marginalizing, by what ever means necessary, any conservative group.

It's not the hope of "changing" America for the better or even championing that which has made America great. It's the prospect of power that has them drunk and fantasizing about absolute control over discourse and behavior they disagree with.

That's why ryan was drooling over a wish for a Democrat majority's power to silence those of us who just won't shut up. That's why Herman uses language like "Judgment Day". And they are not alone.

Herman, keep tipping your hand. We're getting the message loud and clear. You got dealt a bad hand and you're trying to bluff.

I have been out sick a bit ... (Below threshold)

I have been out sick a bit so I wasnt sure if you all had seen this...

Hope the mains... (Below threshold)

Hope the mainstream news doesnt announce a Presidential winner until all the polls closes and the results are finalized.
They have done this before. I specifically remember when Mr Bush was running for the 1st term win and they announced him as the loser.

I am going to boycott watching TV election night and wait for the results the next day.

New CBS poll -O-54... (Below threshold)

New CBS poll -



Re Kim's post -- why does H... (Below threshold)

Re Kim's post -- why does Halloween lean Dem? Seems to me Halloween would not favor one party over another. Just wondering.

<a href="http://zogby.com/n... (Below threshold)

John Zogby himself explains the one day lead was a fluke. I wonder if Drudge will report on this?-NOT! If Kim Priestap had any integrity she would have followed up on this, but as a typical conservative pundit she likes to mislead people.

Anyway, heres what John Zogby says about McCains one day lead,

"Obama has consolidated his lead over McCain. His single day lead today was back to 52%-42%. He leads by 10 among independents and has solidified his base. He leads among Hispanics by38 points, African Americans by 88, 18-24 year olds by 36, 18-29 year olds by 25, 25-34 year olds by 16, women by 8, and men by 3. He has a 17 point lead among those who have already voted, 22 by those who have registered to vote in the past 6 months, Moderates by 34, Catholics by 10. He even receives 21% support among Conservatives.

"So what happened to give McCain a one-point lead in the one-day polling on Friday? It was a day of consolidation for him, too. He had been losing support among key groups and began to regain some of his own base. He now leads by 21 points among NASCAR fans, 9 among investors, 6 among voters in armed forces households, and 2 among voters over 65 years old.

"Remember, as I said yesterday, one day does not make a trend. This is a three-day rolling average and no changes have been tectonic. A special note to blogger friends: calm it down. Lay off the cable television noise and look at your baseball cards in your spare time. It is better for your (and everyone else's) health."

Maybe it's time Kim used a ... (Below threshold)

Maybe it's time Kim used a can of Raid™
on some of the infestations.
Yes. I am back.






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