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Predictive markets betting against a public option

Predictive markets are a powerful tool in analyzing notable political events. The reason for this of course is simple. Anyone can state opinion as fact when there are no consequences. But when you make people monetarily accountable for their opinion you often get more truth and less bull. Funny how capitalism works, eh?

A quick search will take you to some dire warnings that Harry Reid is close to "ramming health care through without a debate". Polls with highly questionable internals suggest support for a public option is skyrocketing. But what does a predictive market say about the subject? The market at Intrade paints an entirely different picture.


Click the thumbnail above to see a larger image of the same graph.

There are two things to note. One, the market predicts only a 10% chance for health care with a public option to be passed before the end of the year. Such markets are not always accurate but rarely would such a strong prediction be incorrect. Two, the market hasn't been over 50% any time during its entire lifetime--dating back to this summer.

Should fiscal conservatives still be worried about the prospect of government run health care? Of course. Should people continue to highlight the waste, inefficiencies, and socialist nature of the proposed plan? Absolutely. The Intrade market gives some hope, though. There is time to fight the passage the bill. It is important that people continue that fight without getting caught up in over-hyped pessimism.


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Comments (6)

#3 Obama sucs.... (Below threshold)

#3 Obama sucs.

Now let's defeat this thing... (Below threshold)

Now let's defeat this thing and get on with getting rid of the Kenyan. Pray and Pray with confidence.

I bought a new Chevy S10 pi... (Below threshold)

I bought a new Chevy S10 pickup in '99 and have had more problems with that piece of shit than any of the many $500.00 beaters I've owned that already had 100,000 miles on them when I bought them.Every 50,000 miles or so it needs a new timing chain set and outer tie rods as well as u-joints despite the fact that I use synthetic oil,drive conservatively and rarely have any weight in the bed.
Last damned GM I'll ever buy.

Good post.... (Below threshold)
gary gulrud:

Good post.

Notice that ALL the charts ... (Below threshold)

Notice that ALL the charts concerning Barry and Company tend in the same direction?

Here are some more Intrade ... (Below threshold)
Tina S:

Here are some more Intrade "Predictions"


2012 Election Presidential Winner (Party)
Democrat 63.5
Republican 35.4

2010 US Midterm Elections- Who will control Senate
Democrats 90.0
Republican 6.0

2010 US Midterm Elections- Who will control House
Democrats 69.5
Republican 32.4

2012 Republican Nominee (Top 3)
Roney 25.2
Palin 25.0
Pawlenty 24.9






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