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InTrade: Brown and Coakley Trading is Tied

InTrade has a very good reputation for accuracy in elections, and today it has Brown and Coakley tied at 50-50 when only 48 hours ago, Coakley was trading at 77 to Brown's 23. Thanks to Doug Ross for the heads up.


Doug also notes that their trading at 50 each is "a stunning reversal for Coakley who once traded at 96. Shares in Brown have risen from 5 in a matter of less than a week."

I'm praying Brown rides this all the way to election day and wins big. If you want to donate to Scott Brown's campaign to help him win on Tuesday, you can do so here.

Update: InTrade now has Scott Brown ahead. Glenn Reynolds is right: Let's not get cocky. The fat lady hasn't sung yet.


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Comments (6)

Look at that Coakley graph!... (Below threshold)
jim m:

Look at that Coakley graph! 97% at the beginning of January. This has to be one of the fastest implosions of any campaign. In just two weeks she has gone from a sure thing to a toss up loser.

Brown had a rally here in Quincy this morning they had well over 200 people show.

This id good, but I find th... (Below threshold)

This id good, but I find the whole Intrade thing beyond stupid. Unless these are MA residents doing the trading then why is it given such creedence?

Michael,Because In... (Below threshold)
jim m:


Because Intrade is based on a commodity futures model where people are betting not just who will win the race, but also you can bet both that a candidate will win and separately that another will lose and get slightly different odds for each.

Brown is currently running at 54% while Coakley is at 48%. After the election each share of the winner will be worth $10 and each share of the loser will be worth $0. Right now I can buy a share of Brown winning for $5.60 and a share of Coakley winning for $4.88. I can also short sell Coakley winning for $4.50 (betting that she loses and I get $4.50 if she does), but if she wins I will have to purchase a $10 share to make up for that short sale.

Intrade has been a highly accurate predictor of elections and the spread that it gives is often quite close to the actual ballot result.

It's creative and very successful.

I guess I find it weird tha... (Below threshold)

I guess I find it weird that someone in Utah buying Brown on Intrafe impacts the race. But then again I did not do well in stastics, etc...so this all beyond my ken anyway.

So when do the Dems start p... (Below threshold)

So when do the Dems start packing the ballot boxes? Or where they caught off guard, figuring Martha was a shoo-in?

Michael,Intrade bu... (Below threshold)
jim m:


Intrade buying and selling doesn't impact the race, but it does provide an accurate gauge on public sentiment. Even if you are not in Massachusetts you would be very foolish to participate in that market without being well informed about what's going on on the ground.






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