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Are Rasmussen and Gallup Converging? Why Democrats Continue To Ignore The Obvious

Yeah, I know a polling firm can design and conduct a poll to fish practically any opinion they desire from the gullible, illiterate masses they routinely cull to produce their preferred result. That's why reading the crosstabs (thanks, Allah) in these polls is important.It's also why the polls sponsored by the old media during election cycles were so suspect. It got so bad that I routinely discounted all of those polls, including the NBC/Wall Street Journal sponsored polls (this because the Journal news columns regularly shed their credibility during elections).

However, Gallup and Rasmussen have been reporting some polling lately that should scare the hell out of Democrats in the business of getting elected.

PRINCETON, NJ -- Americans' favorable rating of the Democratic Party dropped to 41% in a late March USA Today/Gallup poll, the lowest point in the 18-year history of this measure. Favorable impressions of the Republican Party are now at 42%, thus closing the gap between the two parties' images that has prevailed for the past four years.

Gallup last measured party images in late August/early September of last year. At that point, the Democratic Party enjoyed an 11-point favorable image advantage over the Republican Party. Now, the favorable ratings of the two parties are essentially tied.

Note, a tie in this type of poll is not good news for Democrats.Rasmussen opines that President Obama's recently spiked after the last jobs report but has since subsided:

The President's Approval Index ratings bounced following last Friday's jobs report which showed the highest level of job creation in three years. However, that bounce appears to have faded-- especially among unaffiliated voters. A similar pattern was found in our separate polling on consumer and investor confidence. Confidence spiked in the days following the jobs report but has since retreated back to the levels found last week.

There is no mystery in these reports. Last week's jobs numbers were Potemkin metrics as evidenced by today's report that jobless claims rose "unexpectedly" last week. How many times have BLS jobs reports been described as "unexpected" in the past year? I've lost count.

Most of the problems afflicting Democratic incumbents in 2010 and the President seem to revolve around unemployment and the failure of Congress and the President to adopt policies that promote private sector job growth. Fly over country voters understand this; the inside the beltway political class does not. Democrats ignore it because they have forgotten the results of 1994.

Update: After some additional analysis Hot Air notes this in the recent Gallup study:

Apart from a brief moment in 2005 when they were at net zero, not once in 18 years did the Democrats' own favorable rating fall into negative territory -- until halfway through last year, right around the time the great ObamaCare debate began. Follow the link to Gallup's report and note how the trends in party favorables correspond to that. Among independents, the Dems are rock steady at 47 percent until last summer, when the bottom suddenly drops out; similarly, Republican support for the GOP was on a steady slide until precisely the same point, when it suddenly rebounded by 20 points in just three months.

The Liberal feet of clay are crumbling right now.


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Comments (11)

"Democrats ignore it becaus... (Below threshold)

"Democrats ignore it because they have forgotten the results of 1994."

They're all in NancyLand where everything is always bright smiley faces and plenty of tax money to squander on meaningless pet projects.

It's okay. The alarm clock is set for November.

"Most of the problems affli... (Below threshold)
jim m:

"Most of the problems afflicting Democratic incumbents in 2010 and the President seem to revolve around unemployment and the failure of Congress and the President to adopt policies that promote private sector job growth. "

Obama and friends are not interested in private sector job growth. They are only interested in public sector job growth.

And no, the dems aren't afraid. They know that their friends in the MSM are worth 10-15% at the ballot box (or so said the head of NBC news in 2008). They know that their screwing with the census is going to give them a bunch of house seats. They know that they can get around campaign finance laws with ease. And they know that AG Holder won't prosecute a soul if they are threatening or assaulting conservatives at the polls.

All that and the media would love to stir up some story about right wing political violence making it too dangerous to hold elections.

Any jobs numbers coming fro... (Below threshold)

Any jobs numbers coming from the maladministration should be regarded as not merely cooked, but left-in-the-oven-during-the-self-cleaning-cycle cooked.

Jim on this one you are wro... (Below threshold)

Jim on this one you are wrong, wrong, wrong. The MSM is collapsing...it is not convincing anyone of anything as hardly anyone is watching anymore. You are presuming that they are screwing with the census...and
who cares about Holder...the SEIU thugs are going to be overwhelmed by the huge amount of people going to polls. Take a chill pill...paranoia is treatable....get help.

Granted, the MSM really is ... (Below threshold)
jim m:

Granted, the MSM really is collapsing and the public isn't buying heir crap like they used to but I don't think it has changed that much un the last year.

Regardless, even if the MSM can't skew the polls like they once did, the dems THINK that the MSM can still do it. If the dems are able to give the FCC the ability to regulate the internet then look out.

I am not just presuming the... (Below threshold)
jim m:

I am not just presuming they are screwing with the census. They are sending duplicate forms to areas that lean democrat. They are focusing efforts to boost the count in urban areas. They are screwing with the census and they will reap the benefit.

What I find of interest is ... (Below threshold)
Geoffrey Britain:

What I find of interest is the particular rationalization that is allowing Democrats to stay in denial.

On FOX, you constantly hear Dems acknowledge that they'll lose seats but then qualify it by saying that besides the normal mid-term 'adjustment', the voters are angry at all incumbents, that its strictly an anti-incumbent mood that's sweeping the nation.

They absolutely refuse to even consider that the anger might be aimed far more at the Dems than at the RINO's in Congress.

Part of the reason why is that most liberals only watch and read the Lame-Stream-Media...so they aren't objectively exposed to the arguments, as to why the 'stimulus' bill, ObamaCare, Cap & Trade, etc. are bad ideas.

They're in an a liberal echo chamber and hear everything presented in a way that supports the liberal agenda. Result; isolation and an out-of-touch leadership.

This is good.

The left in denial is good because it means they won't pretend to move to the center.

They have fundamentally misjudged the public and Obama has got them all drinking the kool-aid.

He and Pelosi and Reid will do more to erase white guilt and expose the fallacies of the left than any conservative could ever do.

Barack Obama, Pelosi and Reid... the gift that keeps giving.

The Democrat party has more... (Below threshold)

The Democrat party has more than just a problem with the words "unexpectedly" and unemployment numbers being mentioned in the same sentence.

They jammed bills through Congress based on "if we don't do this RIGHT NOW its going to have disastrous results" meme that in essence paid their political friends off with never before seen sums of money.

Do you really want to know why they are ignoring the polls?

They don't care.

That's right, THEY ... DON'T ... CARE.

The momentum of the economic crisis they have created cannot be stopped without cuts in something or raising taxes and in a down economy with E6 unemployment running at 18% taxes, even a VAT, will only accelerate the rate of the financial decline.

Also, when was the FIRST time you saw a government program cut?

The only POSITIVE employment figures are for government hiring, NOT private employment where the vast majority of jobs come from.

When the reins of power change this fall the conservatives will have hard choices to make and stand by. I just hope they have the conviction to make those choices and carry them through the 2012 elections successfully.

The mood of the country has... (Below threshold)
Jim Addison:

The mood of the country has definitely swung against the Democrats, mainly due to their wild deficit spending and ramming through the unpopular health care bill while avoiding their constituents.

Republicans have a big problem in capitalizing on this, though - it is not automatic by any means. We need to recognize that so far nearly all of the lost support for Democrats is due to their own actions, not any great love for the GOP.

And yet, within our own ranks there is a growing movement to purge the party of those who haven't been in lock-step with the base. People are backing challenges to McCain and Bennett, just because their conservative voting has "only" been in the 80-85% range and they have gone off the reservation on certain issues.

They insist on forming circular firing squads and aiming inward. Even Stalin understood the time for a purge is AFTER you have solid control, not before you get there.

Considering the fact that t... (Below threshold)
Don L:

Considering the fact that the Democrats own the mind manipulating media, these are not good numbers. There are still far too many otherwise good smart people out there who are not paying attention to national issues, but they will be forced to, and then the left (as it did in Europe before the walls came down) had better find a place to hide.

Hint: Venuzuala is chuck full of your types and the Crocs aren't too hungry yet.

Just remember why the Donks... (Below threshold)
DJ Drummond:

Just remember why the Donks are still confident:

- If we don't make sure to vote, the thugs can still win.

- If we don't get our neighbors to vote, the thugs can still win.

- By early summer 2008, the Donks looked very beatable ... but we fell apart and the thugs won.

- In 2006, the GOP had a manageable position but the politicos in D.C. did nothing about it and handed Congress to the Donks.

- Polls in April don't count.

We still have to get all those voters to the polls, with solid information on who did what to them, and why they should care and do something about it. The Donks won't tell the truth, neither with CBS/ABC/NBC/CNN ...






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