My family was a Democratic voting machine up until my father reached his late 30’s. I remember as a youngster the debates between my grandfather, my dad, and one of my cousins during the campaign for the presidency in 1980 between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan. Over 20 years later many people seem to remember this as a landslide victory that was a Reagan steamrolling, but in the popular vote and pre-election polls it was in fact a very close right up to election day.
The Electoral College victory was landslide win for Reagan: 489 EV’s to Carter’s 49 EV’s. The election of 1980 signaled a shift in power from traditional Democratic strongholds in the Northeast and Midwest to the New South and Sun Belt where the population had been migrating for some time. I found an interesting site for those too young to remember or those just longing for a little election history, called The Living Room Candidate. The 1980 Election Page there is worth a visit.
Now on to my point about Tony Blair. Democrats lost the middle class beginning in the 1984 election between Reagan and Mondale. Mondale choose the McGovern campaign strategy of focusing on core constituencies, such as labor unions and minorities, rather that fighting Reagan in the New South and Sun Belt for the suburban middle class vote.
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I agree with all of this with one minor quibble: I’m not sure why one has to be a lawyer to sit on the Supreme Court. Justices have law clerks to research the precedents and the statutes. The job of SCOTUS is to interpret the Constitution and to reconcile conflicting statutes. Lawyers seem not to be all that good at it. Maybe we should start appointing political scientists. Or, medical doctors, engineers, businessmen and others with intelligence and broad experience. Lawyers are, as a class at least, quite bright. But I’m not sure “thinking like a lawyer” is the best thing for the top appelate court.
Point taken. It might well be an improvement. I’ve met Mfume and always thought him to be an upstanding leader. I’ve been quite disappointed with him this week however.
Yep. As I blogged yesterday, I was always impressed with him when he was in Congress. Didn’t agree often, but found him highly articulate and reasonable. The NAACP James Byrd ad in 2000 permanently turned me off of that organization and, by extension, its leader.
I think the lessons from Tony Blair are difficult ones to apply to what is, after all, a vastly different country. The Conservatives became unpopular because of the economy, and not because of high unemployment or the fact that they had squandered our North Sea oil wealth or destroyed our manufacturing industry.
Tony is popular because he speaks very eloquently, and from the heart. He gathered around him some of the best media manipulators around, in order to fight the Tory spin machine. He took care in the beginning to court the “middle classes” while not alienating his power base – the activists – too much. Unions over here, while important in terms of money, do not provide much input in terms of ideas or people on the ground.
Mostly our activists were energised by the fact that we could win, and that finally the long, dark Tory years were over.
Lessons for the Democrats? Listen to your focus groups. Radical ideas are not bad ideas (whoops) and bully, coerce and co-opt the media until they are onside. Perhaps reminding them that you will be in charge again at some stage will focus their minds?
But most of all: get out there and canvass like mad!
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