In an election where the perception game is as important as anything, stories like this are worth their weight in gold.
In an election where the perception game is as important as anything, stories like this are worth their weight in gold.
– Erm…Paul….nothing to click?
oh geez! same mistake 2 times in 2 days. fixed.
must… get… sleep…
The idea that a lead this great is a “statistical dead heat” is as false as it is true. That is, the margin of error that is “plus or minus four points” refers to a an interval of two “standard deviations.” People talk of two standard deviations as a statistically significant margin because there is a 95 cases out of a hundred — 95% of the time — the results will fall within the predicted range. However, a single standard deviation — two points in this poll — is correct 50% of the time. So there is a 50% chance that Bush is at least two points ahead of Kerry, and essentially no chance that Kerry is ahead of Bush.
Of course, I’m just a lowly corporate tool, so if any of you statisticians out there think I’m wrong and want to bitch slap me, whack away.
I think the DNC has planted a story on these polls and Drudge is running with it here.
Dan I commented on your blog but I’ll paste it here as well.
———————
Dude, you completely missed what was going on. Drudge indicated it was a Dem polling agency. If you look at the bottom of the press release it says “Paid for by Kerry/Edwards.”
It is a political hack poll that is indeed intended to “Keep hope alive” but it did not require your BS detector, it is blatant.
Hey gang, I was at the Republican headquarters in Hackensack, NJ working the telephones today for the Bush campaign(forget NYC, I working in Jersey because Bush has a shot in that state). Guess who paid a surprise visit? The Bush daughters. They are so cool.
I love the selective use of polling utilized! It’s like Fox on the Internet!
Where are Bush personal numbers? Right/Wrong Track? Independents? Battleground states? You know the significance of the incumbent’s 50% percent bar?
You know the significance of the incumbent’s 50% percent bar?
We know what the pundits tell us the significance is — but them folks don’t have much credibility anymore.
I still say Bush 52-47.
This election is a referendum on the GWOT. We know where voters stand on that.
There’s a good chance Bush will take IA, WI, and MN redering Ohio unimportant. If you ignore the Trib poll and take Zogby with a grain of salt, Bush looks very good in those states.