The Smoking Gun in Wash State Gov Election?

Stefan Sharkansky has been doing yeoman’s work over at soundpolitics.com on the Washington state governor’s race. He’s found some goodies:

I found a specific case of ballotless voters. Three precincts that share a polling place in Issaquah [2602, 3464 and “Gilman”] where the total number of voting voters noticeably exceeds the number of ballots counted. Unlike some of the similar discrepancies I found with polling place ballots, this one can’t be explained by adjusting with other precincts from the same polling location.

The only possible explanations that I can imagine: (1) A number of voters were erroneously recorded as having voted when they didn’t vote. (2) ballots disappeared and weren’t counted. (3) ballots were mixed up in the counting center and placed with other precincts. (4) The ballot counts are bogus. I suspect we’ll never know the answer.

He explains in greater detail in this post

The Smoking Gun

As I noted briefly this afternoon, I’ve found some discrepancies that are in some ways more serious and unexplainable than the ones I reported last night here. I consider this to be a smoking gun — not for fraud — but for data that is hopelessly irreconcilable and worthless for ascertaining the outcome of this election.

There are three precincts in Issaquah that together have more people who voted than there are ballots that can be located. In other words, either some voters’ ballots disappeared, or people who didn’t cast ballots made it onto the list of people who did. Neither is acceptable, but I suppose the former is more likely to have happened than the latter.

Elections are weird things. Local races can appear to confuse the vote from a larger race and cities, counties and states often have developed weird -but usually accurate- ways of counting votes.

Recall that after the Ohio count, many people (*cough Ketih Oberman cough*) thought the numbers did not add up but after it was explained how the local officials counted the ballots, the critics realized they were jumping to a false conclusion. (well most of them did anyway)

I have not taken the mountain of time required to double check Stefan’s work but on the surface at least, it looks like he is on to something. The Seattle Times seems to think so too.

Give it a look, there is a lot of data, but certainly worth skim reading no matter where you live.

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4 Comments

  1. Steve L. January 4, 2005
  2. -S- January 4, 2005
  3. Big Bang Hunter January 4, 2005
  4. firstbrokenangel January 6, 2005