Global Warming – Putting Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

Notice the headline, both sides bet but the Guardian must think one side is gambling more than the other.

Climate change sceptics bet $10,000 on cooler world

Russian pair challenge UK expert over global warming

Two climate change sceptics, who believe the dangers of global warming are overstated, have put their money where their mouth is and bet $10,000 that the planet will cool over the next decade.

The Russian solar physicists Galina Mashnich and Vladimir Bashkirtsev have agreed the wager with a British climate expert, James Annan.

The pair, based in Irkutsk, at the Institute of Solar-Terrestrial Physics, believe that global temperatures are driven more by changes in the sun’s activity than by the emission of greenhouse gases. They say the Earth warms and cools in response to changes in the number and size of sunspots. Most mainstream scientists dismiss the idea, but as the sun is expected to enter a less active phase over the next few decades the Russian duo are confident they will see a drop in global temperatures.

While global warming* is a myth, I would bet with the Brit on this one. That the earth has been warming as measured for the last few years is undeniable. That it will reverse itself is, in my mind, also undeniable. But betting on it in such short (planitary) terms is folly.

If the stock market has been up for 3 days, it is likely it will up tomorrow. Devoid other information, betting it will go up is the right bet even if it is a bear market. Since it is doubtful the temperature trend will turn on a dime, I’d bet with the Brits based on the short term… Give me 100 (or 500) years and I’d be on the other side.

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Footnote: * Sigh- here we go again* And this is only aimed at about 5-7 people….

Defining “global warming” is not unlike defining “evolution.”

Each may have a specific (and precise) meaning but (like it or not..) they are often used as catch-all phrases that encompasses many sub-theories. For those of you who abhor such linguistic encapsulation, I suggest grief therapy.

When I use “global warming” in this post, I use it as the catch all phrase that means roughly “Humans are causing the temps to rise and we’re all gonna die!” Indeed when most people hear the words “global warming” that is what they think of.

Yes, there are dozens of sub-theories involved but -again- they defy the convenient linguistic encapsulation that is a prerequisite of a brief blog post.

Because I don’t write 10,000 words about every various theory does not mean I am not familiar with them, nor that I don’t respect your pet one. Implying that I don’t mention your pet theory because I’ve never heard of it will result in simple deletion. Grow up and act like adults and comments will remain unfettered. Simple, ain’t it?

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