The new Rasmussen tracking poll was just released. (Yes, I stayed up and kept refreshing the screen.)
President Bush’s job approval is now at 45%, disapproval is now at 52%. That is a 5 point swing in one night, so you can imagine what the results must have been in the one night sample.
This is actually the best number for the President since the 9/11 anniversary. However, a closer look at the numbers may give some indication where we will stand on election day.
September 11, 2006 – 41% to 57%.
September 12, 2006 – 44% to 54%
September 13, 2006 – 45% to 52%
September 14, 2006 – 47% to 50%
It took three nights for the bad sample to be removed. When it was all said in done, the President received a 13% bounce. Given the fact that he probably scored his best numbers in the immediate sample after his speech, his net approval rating was probably higher, perhaps 20% net approval on the day following September 11, 2006.
Now let’s look at the present situation.
November 5, 2006 – 43% to 53%
November 6, 2006 – 45% to 52%
November 7, 2006 – ?
As you can see, the odds are that the President will rise even higher tomorrow as the sample from last night rolls off the charts. And, in case you are wondering, if the President is in the vicinity of 47% to 48%, it is extremely good news. The race for the House will be fought and won in Ohio and Indiana. If the President is at 48% nationally, he is probably around 53% to 54% in places like Indiana.