Designing a better "Exit Poll"

About the time the news outlets stopped hiring professional polling firms to conduct the “exit polls” of voters and formed a “pool” to hire only one to poll for all of them in a cost-cutting measure, the accuracy of exit polling began to decline. Some have theorized that the young, minimum-wage poll-takers at the precincts were avoided by Republican voters, leading to poll results predicting more Democratic success. But Democrats have also been under-predicted in some cases, so the problem is probably that the networks aren’t willing to pay enough to field poll-takers anyone wants to talk to.

To improve the results, then, we should devise a system of exit polling which doesn’t require talking to anyone. We need to be able to identify voters’ choices on sight alone. To this end, I am developing a guide for exit polling. Your suggestions are welcome in comments.

Here are the voter identification profiles, and the candidates they support, I’ve come up with so far:

Woman in Birkenstocks – Hillary Clinton

Woman with pink, orange, or green hair – Dennis Kucinich

Man or Woman carrying Bible – Mike Huckabee

Man carrying what appear to be two Bibles – Mitt Romney

Woman with copper or magenta hair – Barack Obama

Man with American Legion cap – John McCain

Man with holstered pistol – Fred Thompson

Young person with visible piercing other than the ear – Barack Obama

Man with suit and tie, following ambulance – John Edwards

Man with turtleneck sweater, Dockers, blazer, and beard – Hillary Clinton

Man with turtleneck sweater, Dockers, no blazer, no beard – Barack Obama

Woman with turtleneck sweater, Dockers, blazer, no beard – Hillary Clinton

Woman with turtleneck sweater, Dockers, blazer, beard – Hillary Clinton

Woman in pink tee shirt – Dennis Kucinich

Black woman with big hair, fashionably dressed, and a mob of white women following her – Barack Obama (It’s Oprah – duh)

White man with tattoo – Barack Obama

White man with swastika tattoo – Ron Paul

White woman in white blouse and midi-skirt – Mike Huckabee

Man in Bill Richardson tee shirt – trick question: like you’d see one of those!

Man in trench coat, unshaven – Ron Paul

Man with union button, wielding 2×4 – John Edwards

Young woman, dark hair, full lips, no bra – Bill Clinton’s date

White man, shotgun, white tee shirt, blue jeans – Fred Thompson

Young white man, “Afro” hairdo – Ron Paul

Young white woman, “Afro” hairdo – Hillary Clinton

Young white man, white shirt, thin black tie, on bicycle – Mitt Romney

Middle-aged man, confused look, slack jaw, nods at everything – John Edwards

Young white woman, tee shirt with misspelled words, look of hope – Barack Obama

Man with tinfoil hat – Ron Paul or Dennis Kucinich*

• For this case a further nonverbal test is necessary – kits available at nominal cost, card table not included: put two stacks of flyers on card table, one supporting gold standard, the other opposing space-based mind control rays. Those who choose the first flyer support Paul, those who pick the second support Kucinich, and the guy who kicks over the table and spits on both supports Thompson.

Young man, Grateful Dead tee shirt – Ron Paul

Young man, Amy Winehouse tee shirt – Barack Obama

Young man, Neil Diamond tee shirt – Hillary Clinton

Woman, Neil Diamond tee shirt – Mike Huckabee

Older woman, patent leather purse – John McCain

Older woman, Prada purse – Hillary Clinton

Older man, Nine Inch Nails tee shirt – John McCain

Older man, unsteady gait, incoherent with Boston accent – Chris Dodd

Oh, I Wanna Go Back To Dixville...
Monday Night Round Up