“The more things change, the more things stay the same.”
There were so many losers in Election 2024 that to just list them all would be an exhausting exercise, one which I shall leave to others…
I will note that the most consistent loser over the last 3 election cycles have been the Pollsters. How any of them remain in business quite simply escapes me.
One spot of clarity has been Ryan Gest, better known as Election Predictions Official. He starts from the refreshing view point that polling is indeed skewed, and thus that even a running average of polls is likely to be suspect. In point of fact his election prediction based on Real Clear Polling’s average adjusted for average biases by state across the last four Presidential Election Cycles led him to predict a 306 to 229 win for Trump in which only his call for Nevada was off.
2028 will, of course, be an entirely different beast in terms of the political players, but the odds are very good the the pollsters and their biases will not have changed.
