Democrats Will Be The Last To Know That They Were Losing Ohio All Along

How do I know that? Look at this story from Taegan Goddard at Political Wire:

Ohio Is Not a Toss Up

Nate Silver looks at the polling average in Ohio — made up of roughly a dozen polling firms who have surveyed the state over the past 10 days — and notes it shows President Obama with a 2.4 percentage point lead over Mitt Romney.

“There are no precedents in the database for a candidate losing with a two- or three-point lead in a state when the polling volume was that rich… It is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election.”

Oh that magic 538 database!!!

Josh Jordan at National Review sums the major issue with most of those Ohio polls:

The polls give Democrats a better turnout advantage than they had in 2008: As I explained in my last Ohio post, in 2008 Democrats beat Republicans in turnout by five points. The current polls show an average of D+6.6. A D+5 turnout in 2008 gave Obama a 4.5-point victory, while he is currently leading by only 2.1 points on an even greater D+6.6 turnout. Again, we know it should be very difficult for Democrats to match their 2008 turnout, let alone increase it.

As Jordan points out Romney is increasing his lead among Independents, and we already know that Republican enthusiasm is light years beyond 2008. The only way the numbers add up is if President Obama outperforms his Ohio results from 2008 among Democrats. That doesn’t seem very likely. And today a new D+3 poll from Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization that President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each with 49 percent support from likely voters, and Rasmussen has it tied as well.

So Ohio isn’t really in come from behind territory for Romney, it’s in deal closing territory. Just like Virginia, Florida, Colorado, and now Wisconsin.

Update (10/29/12): Rasmussen now has Romney up by 2% (50% Romney, 48% Obama).

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